Chart Analysis » spy

SPY Chart – April 22, 2010

Alex F — Thu, 22 Apr 2010 18:03:44 +0000

I charted the S&P 500 ETF, SPY, just before 2:00 pm today. After a long overdue dip, SPY has seen three decent steps back in the past five days, but each one has recovered by the close. Today seems to be following the same course. SPY found support on its trend line of higher highs and bounced hard from there.

The support area was a previous line of resistance and later support showing the 119 area is going to be one to watch in the future. To the upside it looks like $121.00 – 121.50 might be the next line of resistance. Since I’ve been typing this in the past 10 minutes SPY moved above the shortest trend line of lower highs from the past couple of days. I’m still cautious about jumping in here, but once SPY clears $121.50 we could see another leg of the rally take it all of the way up to its upper trend line of higher highs.

SPY Chart – Broke Above Down Trend

Alex F — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 21:18:02 +0000

I charted the past 21 days of SPY after I saw SPX was stuck at 1080 again. Looking at the difference between the SPX chart and the SPY chart can be interesting sometimes. SPY typically follows the SPX as designed, but every once and a while you’ll see SPY overshoot slightly on either side. SPY is stuck around 108, but just as it dipped a little under it a few weeks ago before breaking below 108.00, SPY edged up a little above 108.00 today too. The fact that SPY broke above its downtrend line of lower highs is less exciting since 108 remained resistance. Tomorrow will be interesting to see how SPY opens. A solid move above 108 could be a sign that a lot more gains are on their way. A reversal with 108 remaining as resistance could send SPY back on its path lower. The trend line that was lower highs could end up acting as a trend line of lower lows.

The 10 day moving average for SPY is at 107.89, so nearly dead on where it closed for the day, but slightly to the bulls favor. Again, tomorrow will be interesting to watch this one too.

Efharisto Hellas (Thanks Greece).

SPY Chart – Sitting on Crucial Support

Alex F — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:16:27 +0000

I charted SPY this afternoon when it was trading at $105.33 as it sat at a level of critical technical support. The two main indicators I like to use that are in play right now are the trend line of higher lows and the 50 day moving average (dma). The 50 dma and the two lower trend lines are very close to each other. I drew two trend lines to mark different trends of higher lows. The longer one starts with the intraday low of March. The shorter one has been a point of resistance a few times, but for the past three months has acted as support. They are within a few points of each other now. Those three combined are key indicators to see support or this little mini-correction could get a lot steeper.

In addition to the moving averages and trend lines, Williams %R is getting close to an interesting point. I say “close” because I see Williams %R as a better indicator when a stock or ETF pushes it out of oversold rather than just when it enters. I highlighted the entry points into that lower grey area of oversold for the 14 and 28 day indicators to show how the last eight months have reacted to similar times. Each one shows SPY move higher soon after that mark. The unknown is if SPY will stay oversold longer this time than previously. The canary in the mine might be the trend lines and moving average I addressed in the first paragraph. Once the direction is chosen, I expect a quick 5% in either direction. Hold on tight and get your trading fingers ready. (Give a point or two in either side of my trend lines for my less than precise drawing.)

SPY Chart – Sticking to Resistance Trend Line

Alex F — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 14:09:24 +0000

I charted SPY this morning at 9:47 when it was trading at 105.83 and saw resistance holding the S&P 500 index back from breaking out too far for the next few days. I’d like to see a few percentage point drop before getting in much deeper. Since I’m sitting on some SSO September 32 naked calls, I’d like that dip to happen sooner than later. SPY has a little room to move higher from here, but not much compared to how much room it has to the downside.

SPY Chart – Back up to Resistance

Alex F — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 13:16:25 +0000

I charted SPY before the markets opened after it closed within a few cents of its high of the day yesterday at $104.79. With a close at its highs yesterday I expected a stronger opening this morning, but the chart shows the S&P 500 ETF is hitting resistance again at the trend line of higher highs.

The top trend line I drew comes from the highs of January and I’m not sure it’ll hold wait, but wanted to note it since it’s dead on where SPY finished yesterday. The three other lines seem to hold more power in their support and resistance levels. With SPY trading at the top of the range of those three, lower seems the easiest direction for it to move. Of course it could go sideways for a few days and then will have more room to the upside again, but a pull back to at least the trend line currently around 100 would make the rally seem more realistic. After five positive days (on weak volume) for the index (and ETF) you’d think we’d get a down day mixed in – kind of the two step forward one step back mentality.

I have a short option strangle on SSO (2x SPY ETF) with September 30 naked puts and September 32 naked calls. With SSO trading at $33.58, I can only hope I’m right within the next week before options expiration. I might roll the calls if I don’t see a pull back before expiration. Eventually SPY (and SSO) will have a down day and that’s when I’ll plan to exit. It’s a small enough position that I’m not risking much by letting it ride for now. Including both legs I’m still sitting on a paper profit and would like to end it that way if I don’t screw it up.

SPY Chart – Limited Upside

Alex F — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 15:02:48 +0000

I charted SPY this morning at 10:37 when the S&P 500 ETF was trading at $101.14. After the better than expected jobs report this morning SPY still couldn’t make it through the line of resistance it’s been bumping against all week. The trend line of higher highs won’t give, but has allowed very slight intraday high improvements along the way. That can’t last for long.

What to watch for:

The 10 day moving average has acted as support a couple of times over the past two weeks. Watch for it to break before getting too bearish.
Williams %R is still overbought for the 14 and 28 day periods. Once it breaks below this range is the time to sell be more bearish.
SPY has a little room above the current price for it to move without breaking above the trend line, but if it does make it above and gets another confirmation day after that, I’d be more bullish.

SPY Charts – 1 month vs 6 months

Alex F — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:46:41 +0000

I charted the S&P 500 ETF, SPY, this morning at 11:25 when it was trading at 100.33. To my eyes, this highlights some of the uncertainty in the markets right now. If you only drew the one month chart you’d see clear support at the trend line of higher lows and could easily make the case to buy, but if you scroll down to the six month chart below it you see clear resistance at the trend line of higher highs. What’s a trader to do? I suggest waiting this out at least until the one month chart’s trend line breaks.

I’m expecting SPY to drop some from here. That’ll break support on the one month chart, but will move into a better position on the six month chart. If we could get a 10% correction from SPY we’d be right at the support line of higher lows on the six month chart and would likely be an excellent entry point for new SPY positions.

First the one month chart:

… and now the six month chart:

SPY 3 Month Chart – June 4, 2009 Pre-market

Alex F — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 12:54:07 +0000

I charted the S&P 500 Index ETF, SPY, before the markets opened on June 4, 2009, after it closed at 93.65 on the 3rd.

SPY found support yesterday just above its 200 day moving average
SPY is still in the middle of widening trading channel that started two and a half months ago
Volume remains weak
Williams %R still shows overbought, but is fading – that can last for a while still though
The SPY 10 day moving average is still leading the 20 day moving average by a hair, that’s bullish

Opinion – SPY has closed three days above its 200 day moving average which is big to me. I didn’t expect it to break through and find support, but it did. Once it broke through the expected retest of the line was expected. Now that we’ve seen that today will be telling. If SPY can hold above this moving average this rally could still have legs. That will also help the 10 and 20 day averages move above the 200 day which is a bullish indicator on its own. Based on the trading channel I drew SPY has room to bump around to either side without breaking support or resistance. The key points to watch are the 200 day moving average, then the 10 and 20 followed by the lower trend line of higher lows. The upside potential is extremely hard to predict with so much of the rally already behind us. I’ m not buying in yet, but I might regret it.

SPY Chart – April 24, 2009 – Premarket

Alex F — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:47:42 +0000

SPY is a large ETF that attempts to mimic the daily price changes in the S&P 500. I charted the daily prices for SPY over last three months premarket on Friday, April 24, 2009 after it closed at $85.37 on Thursday.

Line A shows previous levels of both support and resistance and could be another line of support if SPY comes back down
Line B is the trend line of higher lows marking a tough line to break above – This is the top side of SPY’s trading channel
Line C is the trend line of higher lows that started with an intraday high in early March – This is the bottom side of SPY’s trading channel
Line D was the trend line of higher lows, but broke lower on Monday and now could act as resistance
SPY is caught between its 10 day and 20 day moving averages, but futures this morning show that it should move above the 10 day
The Williams %R indicator for the 14 day period broke below overbought this week which is bearish, but is showing signs of life now
The Williams %R indicator for the 28 day period is still in overbought where it remains neutral until it breaks below the gray overbought area

Opinion = With the 20 day moving average offering good support on the lower side and the likely break back above the 10 day moving average likely coming today, SPY could have another few days of upward movement. Lines B and D are the potential resistance areas. I’m only looking for a few days to the upside and then I think the path of least resistance will be lower, possibly down to the 50 day moving average closer to $80.00, but I won’t become bearish until line C breaks and both the 14 and 28 day Williams %R fall – I expect both of those to happen at about the same time.

SPY Chart – March 31, 2009

Alex F — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 19:43:07 +0000

I charted SPY at 3:00 pm on March 31, 2009. SPY is one of the largest S&P 500 Index ETFs. I typically trade SSO (double SPY price action), but chart SPY for a better view of the market’s direction.

All trend lines point down
The most recent short up trending line broke yesterday and didn’t recover today (at least not by 3:00) enough to get above it again
SPY is trading just below the trend line of lower highs
SPY is still trading below its 10 day moving average, but just above its 20 day moving average
SPY’s 50 day moving average could offer support, but hasn’t done much for support or resistance recently
Williams %R broke below overbought yesterday and is still down – this is very bearish

Opinion = The path of least resistance is going to remain lower until SPY can break out of the current trading channel.