Chart Analysis » gld

Gold Chart (GLD) – Facing Hurdles

Alex F — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 15:21:59 +0000

I charted the gold ETF GLD December 24th around 10:00 am. GLD has broken through two of its longest trend lines recently and the lower of those lines, the one that was the trend line of higher lows, could become resistance, giving GLD more room to move higher. GLD has to get past the much shorter and sharper downward facing trend line of lower highs before it can do that. That’s where GLD sits this morning. That gives GLD two lines of resistance. If GLD can get past the sharp trend line of lower highs it only allows GLD to move higher slowly along the trend line that used to be higher lows.

The 50 day simple moving average (sma) gives extra resistance along the way too. The 50 day sma is moving higher each day as the old lower levels slip off and new higher levels are added. It’ll be a slow run for GLD if it follows this line, but gives us something to trade on if GLD can break above it for a few days.

Gold Chart (GLD) – At Potential Support

Alex F — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 21:46:16 +0000

I charted the gold ETF, GLD, after the markets closed on Wednesday, December 15, 2009 when it finished the day at $110.21. GLD is sitting at potential support by a few measures, but that doesn’t make this the right time to buy into the yellow metal yet necessarily. GLD found support just above its 50 day moving average, but yesterday the 10 and 20 day moving averages show a bearish crossover. If this doesn’t snap back soon, GLD could have more room to move south.

Three trend lines stand out for GLD. The lowest is the trend line of higher lows. This line hasn’t broken yet and it’s key for the bulls to see it hold to stay invested. A break below that line could mean a much deeper fall. Just above that line and still holding support is a line that is debatable if it’s worth watching. This line is a combination of previous highs and lows. It’s holding now and could develop into a line to pay more attention to in the near future. The third trend line was the line of lower highs that just broke. Seeing a stop to the nose dive of a fall was big. The biggest play for GLD in the near term could be more sideways movement, at least until the 50 day moving average ticks higher and/or the trend line of higher lows that started in August catches up. Next stop lower could be the $105 area, then closer to $100, based on the highs and lows of October.

I won’t feel comfortable calling for a buy until I see Williams %R indicator move above oversold. I marked the previous few times it’s made that move out of the bottom of its range and each time spelled a move higher for at least few weeks after.

Gold Chart (GLD) – More Room to Fall

Alex F — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 19:55:22 +0000

I charted the large Gold ETF, GLD, this afternoon and see more room for gold to fall. GLD was trading at $112.14 when I drew the chart below and is very close to touching a new potential line of support, but if this line breaks GLD could easily fall another 15%. The trend line holding support today is the part of the same line GLD touched yesterday and from early July until early November was the trend line of higher highs. That same line that was resistance could become support now. Just a couple of days ago, a shorter trend line with a similar history couldn’t hold support and is now acting as resistance again. Along with this other trend line that broke, so did the 10 and 20 day moving averages.

To find support if the first trend line I mentioned breaks, GLD would have to drop to around 108 where the next trend line of higher lows meets up with GLD’s 50 day moving average. If there is a safer entry point to open a new position on GLD it’s closer to the longer term trend line of higher lows which is trending at a much lower angle and more reliable because of that. That’s closer to $97.00 which is also close to the line of intraday lows from most of October. I didn’t have space to include the 200 day moving average, but will note that it’s not much above $95.00 right now and could be another reason to consider the $97.00 range as a better entry point.

Gold Chart (GLD) – Near Top of Trading Channel

Alex F — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 13:09:27 +0000

I charted GLD, a major gold ETF this morning before the markets opened. Yesterday GLD closed at $97.43 after topping out at $98.64. The two parts of the GLD chart that stand out most to me are that GLD couldn’t break above its intraday high from February and that it’s close to the top of its trading channel. Faltering before getting above the highs of seven months ago shows me that this rally could have done all it can do for now. Trading near its trend line of higher highs tells me there’s probably more downside risk than upside potential for GLD at these levels.

Even though they aren’t in play right now, I left the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages on the chart to show how fast GLD has moved away from its previous levels. Even the 10 day moving average (not shown) is down near $95. I expect a little more of a pull back in GLD before it moves much higher. Even letting it touch the middle trend line that was a level of higher highs could be a better entry point as it could become support on the next encounter. At a minimum, the $93 range looks like a better entry point since it’s closer to the 50 and 100 day moving averages and the trend line of higher lows. With so many people bullish on gold right now, there might not be too many buyers left and when GLD turns it’ll probably move down quickly.

For those paying attention, this post went live at 9:09 on 9/9/09. I know, what a dork.

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) – 6 Month Weekly Chart

Alex F — Fri, 22 May 2009 13:08:30 +0000

I charted the past six months of weekly price movement for the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) before the markets opened on May 22, 2009. It closed at $93.85 on the 21st.

GLD moved above its 10 and 20 week moving averages and then used them as support
GLD moved above the prior resistance of its trend line of higher highs

Opinion = The line I drew around $95.00 was a prior intraday low and then an intraday high a few weeks later. That’s the line to watch for me. (I’m putting in a trade alert to let me know if it trades above $95.00.) With momentum still moving in favor of the Gold bulls, GLD could remain on its upward trajectory for weeks to come, but I’m waiting until it crosses $95.00.

Gold (GLD) Chart Cracks – 4/6/09

Alex F — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 18:22:16 +0000

I charted GLD, a major Gold ETF, at 2:00 pm on April 6, 2009 to show the daily price changes for the past three months.

GLD broke below its trend line of higher lows three days ago and did not recover the following day
Today GLD broke below its shorter trend line of lower lows
GLD also broke below the longer-term horizontal support line of lows that used to be the point of resistance in early January
GLD moved below its 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages a week ago and hasn’t regained its footing yet
Williams %R broke away from overbought a couple of weeks ago signaling a sell point
Williams %R is now in oversold territory, but that does not mean it is ready to bounce yet

Opinion = The time to get out of GLD was two weeks ago when Williams %R broke. The time to get back in will be when %R moves back out of oversold, preferably on both the 14 and 28 day indicators.