January 20, 2010
I charted Federal Mogul Corp (NASDAQ:FDML) when it was trading at $17.76 this afternoon. FDML came onto my radar from reading about it in this week’s Barron’s as one of Mario Gabelli’s top picks. It’s down almost 3% today, but found support this morning at a horizontal line of previous intraday lows from the past couple of weeks. That intraday low also happened to be in line with an old/short trend line from December. If today’s low holds, that trend line could become more important and worth following. FDML has a third trend line for the same low point this morning. This third line was the trend line of higher highs for months and has acted as support once after resistance broke. That’s probably my favorite …
January 19, 2010
I charted SSO this morning when it was trading at $40.30, just above its 10 day moving average, after it found support at its trend line of higher lows once again. SSO did not make it as low as Friday’s intraday low and was able to stay safely above its 20 day moving average again. I’d be screamed a buy here, but the upside is very limited with the trend line of higher highs less than $1 in the near term. At the same time, if SSO does make it to this trend line it could be a nice short term trade for a 2-3% gain. Where it goes after these two trend lines converge is going to be the key to where …
January 6, 2010
I charted EEM this morning when it was trading at $43.09. I’m keeping my analysis simple on this one today. EEM has been trading in a channel for a few months and it’s back to the trend line of higher highs. While it could break above that line and continue higher, I expect EEM to move lower again. A drop of a dollar would bring it close to its 10 day moving average which could offer support, but hasn’t been a completely accurate indicator of support for EEM in the past. I’ll be more interested in calling EEM a buy when it gets back to the trend line of higher lows. That line has worked as an entry point for nearly six months….
December 24, 2009
I charted the gold ETF GLD December 24th around 10:00 am. GLD has broken through two of its longest trend lines recently and the lower of those lines, the one that was the trend line of higher lows, could become resistance, giving GLD more room to move higher. GLD has to get past the much shorter and sharper downward facing trend line of lower highs before it can do that. That’s where GLD sits this morning. That gives GLD two lines of resistance. If GLD can get past the sharp trend line of lower highs it only allows GLD to move higher slowly along the trend line that used to be higher lows.
The 50 day simple moving average (sma) gives extra resistance along the way too. The 50 …
December 15, 2009
I charted the gold ETF, GLD, after the markets closed on Wednesday, December 15, 2009 when it finished the day at $110.21. GLD is sitting at potential support by a few measures, but that doesn’t make this the right time to buy into the yellow metal yet necessarily. GLD found support just above its 50 day moving average, but yesterday the 10 and 20 day moving averages show a bearish crossover. If this doesn’t snap back soon, GLD could have more room to move south.
Three trend lines stand out for GLD. The lowest is the trend line of higher lows. This line hasn’t broken yet and it’s key for the bulls to see it hold to stay invested. A break below that line could mean …
December 14, 2009
I charted the year to date daily prices for XLB late in the trading day on Monday, December 14th when it was trading at $32.86. It’s kind of a mixed chart of pick your trend line, pick your story. The two longest (and therefore most important) trend lines are the darkest below and show a narrowing trading channel that could still last another month or longer. The other three trend lines are shorter and still have something to prove. The top one shows potential resistance earlier than the longest trend line of higher highs. The middle thin line has been a consistent floor for XLB for the past month. It could come back into play within the next week or so when the …
December 9, 2009
I charted the large oil ETF, USO, this afternoon when it was trading at $35.75. For about a month and a half USO moved along in a nice orderly trading channel with a downward tilt. Last week it broke through its trend line of lower lows, but quickly recovered. Just a few days later it broke again and didn’t recover. At the same time USO fell below its 100 day moving average. That led to yesterday’s fall and today’s beating.
The bright spot for bulls is that USO found support at its longer term trend line of higher lows just above $35.50. That’s very close to USO’s 200 day moving average which should be a strong point of support. In addition, the past two times Williams …
December 8, 2009
I charted the large Gold ETF, GLD, this afternoon and see more room for gold to fall. GLD was trading at $112.14 when I drew the chart below and is very close to touching a new potential line of support, but if this line breaks GLD could easily fall another 15%. The trend line holding support today is the part of the same line GLD touched yesterday and from early July until early November was the trend line of higher highs. That same line that was resistance could become support now. Just a couple of days ago, a shorter trend line with a similar history couldn’t hold support and is now acting as resistance again. Along with this other trend line that broke, …
November 25, 2009
I charted the CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) this morning just a few minutes after the markets opened while CME was trading at $325.75. CME is still moving along its trading channel from the past few months, but might have a hard time gaining too much more from here. On Monday CME came within 10 cents of its intraday high from a month earlier and failed. That $330.00 level is going to be the key point to watch for the near term. Another attempt and fail at $330 and CME will most likely fall back to its trend line of higher lows, if not lower. If CME can break through this horizontal line of demarcation, it could jump quickly to its trend line of higher …
November 18, 2009
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I charted the past three months’ daily prices for NDAQ this morning while it was trading at $18.81. The biggest line of resistance for NDAQ comes from its trend line of lower highs. That line has been merciless for the past week, but on the opposing side the 10 and 20 day moving averages are holding support. The 10 day hasn’t broken intraday for more than a week and the 20 day manages to hold by close each day. Those two moving averages are close to the upper trend line and leave almost no room for movement. Keep watching this area and very soon we should see a more reliable direction emerge. I’m short six NDAQ November 20 naked puts, so I’d like to see …
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