If RIG can get above that hurdle, and I expect it will, it could head back up to the upper side of its trading channel closer to $95.  I don’t have a position on RIG right now, but if we see a small dip on Friday above today’s lows I’ll probably open up a small position.  Tomorrow will also show if Williams %R is going to move higher again.  If it does that’s another strong buy signal.  I’d have been even more bullish if volume would have been higher on this bounce today.  I’m waiting, if for nothing else, just to make sure this isn’t a dead cat bounce.

MON’s history shows it’s best to wait for it to pull above oversold in the %R indicator.  This chart shows it’s not time to buy yet.  Once MON comes out of the lower gray area of oversold, MON should rip higher for a few days to a few weeks.  The longer it stays in oversold, the longer the rise up tends to be.  I’m already long in MON in my IRA and plan to keep it as a long term position, but if I see it break higher I’m buying my covered call back and will sit back to see how high it can go.

Adding to that likelihood is the return of AA into its old trading channel.  I drew thin lines here because I’m not 100% convinced this will remain a reality.  The top line of higher highs shows AA could head towards $14 easily.  The lower line of higher lows shows potential support above $12.50 give or take.  If this head and shoulders pattern breaks, AA could fall all the way back down to its shorter trend line of higher lows closer to $10.00.  If it dips that low I’ll be ready to buy in with a big shovel.  I’ll probably regret not buying in here with this breakout.

Opinion – SLB gapped down and has broken support of its 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages lately, but it has three trend lines showing support just above $51.00.  I’m long with July 55 covered calls on it still and holding steady for now.

• MON hit resistance at the point of its 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages after it fell below those moving averages a few days earlier.
• MON is at the bottom of it current trading channel
• MON bounced off previous support around $75.00
• Williams %R remains in oversold where it doesn’t tend to stay for long periods

Opinion = I’m staying long my MON position for now.  I expect MON to shake off some of its current funk as it drifts lower for a few days and then I expect it to find better footing soon.  If the $75.00 range breaks support I could see MON trading down to $70.00 quickly.  At $70, I’ll have to consider buying more if that area shows support.

• XLB is touching its trend line of higher lows
• XLB fell below its 10 day moving average yesterday and closed below it
• The 50 day moving average for XLB is just above 22.00 and could offer further support
• Williams %R broke below oversold yesterday, but only on the 14 day indicator, not the 28 – The 14 day indicator is showing strength again today

Opinion = XLB has multiple lines of potential support within $1.50 of its current trading price. I’m leaning bullish on XLB, especially if support holds today on this trend line of higher lows.

• AA hit resistance when it met up with its trend line of lower highs from the past six months three days ago
• AA hit resistance on the same day with its trend line of higher highs from the past nearly two months
• AA broke support at its 10 day moving average yesterday and then recovered above the same line before close
• AA opened below its 10 day moving average and is still below up at noon today
• The 20 and 50 day moving averages are starting to make a bullish crossover
• Support could be around the horizontal line I drew at $6.85, the intraday low in November
• Williams %R is close to breaking below overbought on the 14 and 28 day indicators

Opinion = Earnings tonight will play a major roll in which direction AA tilts tomorrow.  Technical analysis can tell us how far either move could take Alcoa.  Watch %R to see if it breaks tomorrow.  If it does, AA is a sell until it gets near $6.85 and then the risk/reward might switch to being neutral or bullish.  The first two bullets above show how the colliding trend lines kept AA down.  Good earnings could break the longer trend line and still keep the shorter trend line of higher highs intact.  I’m waiting until tomorrow to put my money at risk without a clear indication of direction showing up yet.  If anything, downward is the slight lean I have right now from this chart, but not enough to risk a trade on it.