QLD Chart – Is Tech Braking?

I charted the past year’s daily prices for the ProShares Ultra QQQ ETF (QLD) this morning while it was trading at $54.08.  I’ve seen a lot more charts that are starting to look this way recently.  They’ve ridden a long trend line of higher lows for most of the past year, but are starting to break down recently.  QLD fell below its trend line of higher lows last week and then came back up to touch the same line again, but this time it acted as resistance.  The saving grace for QLD so far is that its 100 day moving average gave it support this morning down to the penny at $54.05.

The trick now is deciding if that same moving average will hold or if the break from the trend line is foreshadowing of an even deeper correction.  The best case scenario for QLD based on this chart shows a slow rise with the previous line of support remaining, but as resistance.  I circled the past three times over the past year when QLD broke above oversold in the Williams %R indicator for the 14 and 28 day indicators.  Each time the indicator moved out of the oversold range QLD produced a new leg up in the long rally.  The key isn’t that it’s oversold now.  That can stay the case for days or weeks.  Watch when it moves higher to make it a true buying indicator.  To be sure it’s not a head fake, maybe it’d be even smarter to wait to wait for QLD to move above the trend line I referenced above.