RSP Chart – May 7, 2009

Rydex S&P Equal Weight (NYSE Arca: RSP) is an ETF that attempts to track the performance of the S&P Equal Weight index.  This is different than the S&P 500 index (tracked in the ETF SPY, among others) that gives stocks with higher market caps greater influence.  I charted RSP after the markets closed on 5/7/09 when it closed at $30.77.

• RSP hit resistance yet again on the trend line of higher highs
• RSP found support on the middle trend line which occasionally acts as support or resistance, but gives in easier than the edges of the trading channel
• RSP is more than 5% higher than its trend line of higher lows
• RSP is trading above its 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages
• Not shown here (because I ran out of lines), RSP broke above its 200 day moving average on 5/4/09 and has now closed above it for four days in a row
• RSP remains in the overbought area of its Williams %R indicator for both the 14 and 28 day views where it could continue to continue its bull run

Opinion = RSP started its current run when it broke above Williams %R oversold around March 10th.  RSP had a couple of bullish crossovers for its trend lines in the few weeks after that.  Monday the 4th it broke its 200 day moving average and then confirmed closes above it for a few days.  RSP has made it past all of these hurdles with little reason to slow, but I believe it’s due for a slight breather down to its trend line of higher lows which is currently around $29.50 and rising.  The keys to watch here are 1) if that support holds 2) if the 200 day moving average stops it from even going that far 3) if Williams %R breaks below overbought and 4) how the 10 day moving average does in adding support.  I’m not buying RSP at tomorrow’s opening price, but will be watching it closely for what could be a slightly better buying opportunity soon.