May 10, 2010
I charted the large, light sweet crude oil ETF, USO, before the markets opened today after it finished last week at $36.31. Since oil has been trading without regard to any real fundamentals for a while I like using the chart to get a better idea of where it could be heading. The chart shows USO is near the bottom of its trading range and should show support soon. The $35 horizontal line has been the rough area of previous support, but it’s been lower. That’s where the trend line of higher lows comes in. That trend line shows potential support coming right about where USO ended on Friday.
I left the moving averages on this chart, but they aren’t playing a roll right …
April 22, 2010
I charted the S&P 500 ETF, SPY, just before 2:00 pm today. After a long overdue dip, SPY has seen three decent steps back in the past five days, but each one has recovered by the close. Today seems to be following the same course. SPY found support on its trend line of higher highs and bounced hard from there.
The support area was a previous line of resistance and later support showing the 119 area is going to be one to watch in the future. To the upside it looks like $121.00 – 121.50 might be the next line of resistance. Since I’ve been typing this in the past 10 minutes SPY moved above the shortest trend line of lower highs from the past …
March 9, 2010
I charted the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF ($MDY) on Tuesday, March 9, 2010 after the markets closed and MDY finished the day at $140.30. Watching the trend line of higher highs that goes back for nearly six months shows MDY is due for a pull back unless it can pull off a surprise breakout. Best case for MDY is that it inches higher along this trend line or goes sideways while the lower trend lines of higher lows catch up. I don’t consider that a strong possibility after such a volatile six months where sideways is rarely part of the price action for MDY.
I left the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages in this chart to show how fast MDY has come off …
March 5, 2010
I charted Cisco ($CSCO) while it was trading at $25.07 mid-afternoon today. What drew my attention to it was that it stopped at the exact same price as its intraday high from January 15th, $25.10, before backing off from it. There’s still time left in the day for CSCO to make a run higher, but hitting resistance at the same range, let alone the exact same price might mean CSCO is ready to take a breather from its current rally.
Adding to that theory is that CSCO is at the top of its trading channel and should at least bump sideways before reaching new highs. While CSCO has edged higher the past couple of days, the volume has been nothing to write home about. …
March 3, 2010
I charted JP Morgan ($JPM) after the markets closed on Wednesday, 3/3/10, when it finished the day at $41.53. JPM has spent the past six months in a trading channel heading lower, but is on the rise within a shorter channel right now. I sold naked puts on it yesterday based on the expectation that it looks like it’s going to run up to the $44 range before coming back down. It could keep climbing, but that’s my first target before I reconsider the position.
In addition to the trend lines, JPM is moving above its moving averages each week. I think the 200 day moving average could act as a floor to the downside in the near term giving the potential for more …
February 25, 2010
I charted EEM near the end of the trading day on February 25, 2010 when it was trading at $38.59. I have a vested interest in this because I’m short two March 41 naked puts. From what I see on the chart I have a fighting chance to see my position end profitably since I took in $1.60 for each option.
The way the chart is moving it looks like the trading channel holding recently gives EEM a range from $38 (ish) to 40. Along with this trading channel, the three potential technical indicators that are going to be most interesting to watch are the 20 and 200 day moving averages and the trend line of lower highs from the beginning of the year. EEM …
February 11, 2010
I charted the past 21 days of SPY after I saw SPX was stuck at 1080 again. Looking at the difference between the SPX chart and the SPY chart can be interesting sometimes. SPY typically follows the SPX as designed, but every once and a while you’ll see SPY overshoot slightly on either side. SPY is stuck around 108, but just as it dipped a little under it a few weeks ago before breaking below 108.00, SPY edged up a little above 108.00 today too. The fact that SPY broke above its downtrend line of lower highs is less exciting since 108 remained resistance. Tomorrow will be interesting to see how SPY opens. A solid move above 108 could be a sign that a lot …
February 3, 2010
I charted NDAQ after the markets closed on Wednesday, February 3, 2010 when it finished the day at $19.06. After hanging out close to $18 for the intraday lows for a week NDAQ started climbing yesterday and broke through its 10 day moving average. Today Goldman Sachs (GS) added NDAQ to its conviction buy list and NDAQ surged again. This time it stopped at its 20 day moving average and closed up nicely for the day, but off its highs.
The biggest bullish indicator that seems to hold true on a regular basis for NDAQ is the Williams %R indicator for 14 and 28 day periods. I’ve highlighted NDAQ in this space a couple of times in the past when this happens and today …
January 28, 2010
I charted the past year’s daily prices for the ProShares Ultra QQQ ETF (QLD) this morning while it was trading at $54.08. I’ve seen a lot more charts that are starting to look this way recently. They’ve ridden a long trend line of higher lows for most of the past year, but are starting to break down recently. QLD fell below its trend line of higher lows last week and then came back up to touch the same line again, but this time it acted as resistance. The saving grace for QLD so far is that its 100 day moving average gave it support this morning down to the penny at $54.05.
The trick now is deciding if that same moving average will hold or …
January 25, 2010
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I charted Goldman Sachs (GS) before the markets opened on January 25, 2010 after GS closed on Friday at $154.12. I was brought to this chart after I read the bullish story on GS in today’s issue of Barron’s. While the story about the fundamentals sounds intriguing, the chart gives some more insight on how to play GS in the shorter term. GS has been on a slide lower for the past four months. Friday saw GS hit its trend line of lower lows. This should give room for GS to bounce some or possible continue to fall at a slower decline than the past few weeks.
One of the biggest indicators to watch to see which way GS goes is the 200 day moving average. …
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